Thursday, June 02, 2005
Random Walks in a combat zone.
The Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, is on his way to the Asian security conference in Singapore. The focus of his mission will be North Korea. This is as it should be. There are three assumptions we need to face.
First. any military conflict will be won by the U.S. and South Korea, regardless of what North Korea or China try to do. Second, any conflict will result in millions of South Koreans dying in indiscriminate North Korean artillery attacks and bio-chemical attacks. Third, we have no real understanding of why North Korea decides to do what it decides to do. It is more accurate to say they are nuts and therefore completely unpredictable, than it is to lean on a simplistic assumption such as that their main goal is to preserve their own power over their nation.
Volatile? Heck yeah. Add nukes and now you're cooking with fire.
First. any military conflict will be won by the U.S. and South Korea, regardless of what North Korea or China try to do. Second, any conflict will result in millions of South Koreans dying in indiscriminate North Korean artillery attacks and bio-chemical attacks. Third, we have no real understanding of why North Korea decides to do what it decides to do. It is more accurate to say they are nuts and therefore completely unpredictable, than it is to lean on a simplistic assumption such as that their main goal is to preserve their own power over their nation.
Volatile? Heck yeah. Add nukes and now you're cooking with fire.
Comments:
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I think the simple statement of "don't do it" would be enough to stop the US efforts in a war with N Korea. The war wouldm't be won simply because China will dictate if it is faught at all.
# posted by 
: 11:28 PM
: 11:28 PM
China will not dictate anything right now. If they had the power to dictate wars, they would have taken Taiwan years ago.
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