Monday, April 27, 2009
What is going on?
We have a pandemic exploding in Mexico and it is spreading to the US. Why are we not closing the border? Tyler Cowen quotes a study that shows that cities that aggressively reacted to the Flu Pandemic of 1918-1919 had death rates 30% to 50% blower then cities that didn't react aggressively.
Department of Homeland Security Secretary Napolitano notes that those infected with swine flu may not show symptoms for a few days, so border closure is "a very difficult judgment to make." That is the problem. We can't be sure that the pandemic is spreading because of the delayed symptoms. If we don't close the borders before we are 100% sure the pandemic is spreading, it will be too late.
Her reasoning gets worse. She states that "You would close the border if you thought you could contain the spread of disease, but the disease is already in a number of U.S. states." Correct, and we have some idea of where it is and we can quarantine. By leaving the borders open, the government has no idea where the next break out will be.
Napolitano simply does not believe in closing the border for any purpose. However, this isn't about illegal immigration it is about protecting Americans from a flu pandemic. And she is obviously not approaching the problem from a risk management perspective. If this pandemic continues to spread from Mexico to the US and is anything like the Flu Pandemic of 1918-1919, history is going to place the responsibility for the deaths of thousands directly on Napolitano and President Obama. And history will be right to do so.
Department of Homeland Security Secretary Napolitano notes that those infected with swine flu may not show symptoms for a few days, so border closure is "a very difficult judgment to make." That is the problem. We can't be sure that the pandemic is spreading because of the delayed symptoms. If we don't close the borders before we are 100% sure the pandemic is spreading, it will be too late.
Her reasoning gets worse. She states that "You would close the border if you thought you could contain the spread of disease, but the disease is already in a number of U.S. states." Correct, and we have some idea of where it is and we can quarantine. By leaving the borders open, the government has no idea where the next break out will be.
Napolitano simply does not believe in closing the border for any purpose. However, this isn't about illegal immigration it is about protecting Americans from a flu pandemic. And she is obviously not approaching the problem from a risk management perspective. If this pandemic continues to spread from Mexico to the US and is anything like the Flu Pandemic of 1918-1919, history is going to place the responsibility for the deaths of thousands directly on Napolitano and President Obama. And history will be right to do so.
